从中国煤层气产业“低工程成功率、低产能转化率、低资源动用率”和地面煤层气开发规模停滞不前的现状出发，研究了造成这个结果的三个主要原因,包括支撑开采技术路径的科学逻辑缺陷、勘探开发生产的非技术要素错配、和产业政策缺位。在论证中国煤层气资源特殊赋存特点的基础上，探讨了从科学逻辑上如何重建以应力气为目标的技术思路，建立了基于压力场、应力场、温度场三场叠合下的“煤-水-岩-气”煤层气成藏四元组构地质模型，和“流体压力循环”与“固体应力循环”的成藏动力解构双循环工程模型；以压力和应力为两个坐标轴根据不同类型煤层气资源的成藏动力差异，将解构成藏动力的技术路径划分为四个象限，给出了不同象限的开发技术路线图和工程工艺适配建议；针对影响产业发展的非技术要素，提出了如何提升开发效率的产业运营组织规则建议，包括在勘探开发转换上用探采一体化代替勘探开发生产三阶段授权审批，在生产组织上尽可能规避“远离技术进步的大规模+低成本”和“失去组合集成保护的切割分包”造成的低效和浪费；认为片面追求以低造价为特点的“工程意义上的低成本”是造成当前生产低效的一个重大错误，一切生产组织行为都必须回归到以高回报为目的的“产能意义上的低成本”基本原则上来。文章分析了30年来政策配套得失，重点研究了低矿权流转率对技术创新的抑制作用，以及煤层气开发产业链中间环节上服务不能独立和供应商不能主动融入，对构建良性生产循环的破坏作用；讨论了如何在加强矿权流转的基础上通过“强中间担两头”重构健康产业链的策略。

Currently,there are some problems in the China CBM industry,such as “low success rate of well con-struction”,“less than half production qualified to designed capacity”,and “little percentage of reserve discovery to total gas-in-place”.Due to these poor performances,the growth of annual CBM production in China has come to a standstill for years.Analysis of what contributes to this situation shows three attributions,i.e.“lack of theoretical guidance on stress-gas development”,“inappropriate industrial requirements leading to ineffective E&P activities”,and “poorly-performed incentive regulations neglecting the growth of service capability and innovations”.Based on the characteristics of China CBM resources,a “4-element geology model” comprised of “coal-water-rock-gas”,is built according to the “3-fields”(pressure+stress+temperature) which play the most important role for CBM reserverization in geology process.By identifying the major routes of such dynamic processes,an engineering model of “dual-cycle” of pressure and stress release is established to put the four types of CBM reserves in the four quadrants of a pressure-stress coordinate system.Matches of engineering design with the most suitable technologies are advised interpreting how gas is deconstructed from the “soluids (solid+fluid)” complexity of 4-elements,according to which axis of the coordinate system dominating the reservoir occurrence.In regards to the non-technical aspects of E&P onsite organizations,it is pointed out that seeking an unduly low-cost of well construction instead of pursuing best well-performances in terms of cost-output is one of the most destructive habits adversely affecting the industry.The regulation issued by the government,requiring strict stage by stage authorization from exploration to development,takes the second responsibility to both poor reserve registry quality and bad well deliverability.An approach of “progressive exploration and development” is strongly recommended.Finally,an all calibre retrospection is to check what the governmental incentives issued in the past 30 years work best to boost the industry.It is found that there are two major issues heavily restricting the extension of the industry chain.The one is the low frequency of mining right trading deteriorated by poor data shares,the other is incentives never apply to the service portion of the industry chain,which leads to almost no technical invention to meet some case-specific reservoir development requirements.A strategy of restructuring incentive package and encouraging mining right trading are accordingly suggested.

1 科学逻辑追问:中国的煤层气资源是不是真的“特殊”到了技术上无解？

   1.1 成藏组构与成藏动力

   1.2 开采技术和工艺适配

2 生产组织追问:低工程成功率、低产能转化率是不是煤层气工业的固有特点、无从改善？

   2.1 必须用探采一体化代替勘探开发生产3阶段授权审批

   2.2 必须规避两大“灾难”:“远离技术进步的大规模+低成本”和“失去组合集成保护的切割分包”

3 产业政策追问:政策上如何跳出越补越“虚”的产业怪圈？

   3.1 一个健全且健康的产业链要以4业共荣为前提

   3.2 有效的矿权流转是活化技术创新和优化开发效率的基础

4 结论